The math of decay

Sewage treatment plants, just like anything else, get old. When they get old, they start to crumble. When they start to crumble, they malfunction.

And when they malfunction, DEP steps in.

Mifflinburg has something called an inflow infiltration problem, DEP spokesman Dan Spadoni said. It means, quite simply, that too much water is getting into Mifflinburg's treatment plant. When heavy rains come, people's sewers back up. It's a problem DEP documented in 2005, at which time Mifflinburg borough officials set a plan in motion to upgrade their sewage treatment plant.

The set of circumstances that followed may seem unique, but municipalities across the Valley and the state at large are experiencing similar difficulties.

After nearly three years of routine red tape and back-and-forthing, Mifflinburg secured a $1.1 million state grant and a $7.2 million low-interest loan. It reached its original $8.3 million estimate for the project, and by all accounts was ready to take care of business.

But when Mifflinburg's engineer -- Jason Wert, of State College-based HRG -- reviewed the latest numbers, adjusted for inflation, he was stunned. In just three years, the cost of Mifflinburg's sewage treatment plant renovation has leaped from $8.3 million to $15 million -- a staggering 81 percent increase.

"I've built over $200 million in projects," Wert said, "and this one floored us."

Rising fuel prices, demand for building materials in China and other developing countries and a down market had combined to lift cement, steel, paint and aluminium prices into the stratosphere. In fact, Wert said, they've changed the paradigm of planning construction projects.

"You generally expect construction prices to increase 3 percent per year," Wert said. "Now they're averaging closer to 10 percent per year."

Mifflinburg Mayor Dave Gutelius, along with just about everyone else in town, is crossing his fingers that the state will grant Mifflinburg the extra $6.7 million it needs to upgrade its sewage treatment plant. Even if Mifflinburg gets the money it needs, the project will take until 2010 to finish.

According to Wert, Mifflinburg's sewer system was built mostly in the 1950s. Most other sewer systems in the state, he said, were built in the late 1960s and early 1970s, meaning Mifflinburg may be at the forefront of what soon could be a host of towns and cities battling decaying sewer systems.

And, unfortunately, they could also be on the front lines of being hit with a catch-22: the struggling national economy has made fixing infrastructure cost much more, but local economies will struggle mightily until infrastructure is up to snuff.

"We're not the only borough in Pennsylvania in this predicament," Gutelius said. "It's coming, and some of the small boroughs will never survive it. It's going to eat them apart."

Check, please