“Folks have been saying we’re going to have cellulosic ethanol in five years for the last 20 years,” said Bob Young, chief economist with the American Farm Bureau.

Countered Marel Raub, Pennsylvania director of the Chesapeake Bay Commission: “It’s probably just a few years. It’s really hard to say, though.”

The National Renewable Fuels Standard, established in the federal government’s Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007, calls for the production of 5.5 billion gallons of next-generation biofuels, like cellulosic ethanol, by 2015, with increases every year after that.

Given enough time and technological advancement, Truslowe hopes to phase in cellulosic ethanol production at the Point Township facility.

“I don’t believe this is a state where making corn ethanol would be locally advantageous,” Raub said. “Corn ethanol is a transitional step to something better, and something better for Pennsylvania is cellulosic ethanol.”

Ground was recently broken on Clearfield County facility that is scheduled to begin production of corn ethanol in 2010. Perhaps more importantly, plans for the second phase of the project include a pilot program for the production of cellulosic ethanol, according to Charlie Young, spokesman for the state Department of Environmental Protection.

Environmental, economic concerns

The advantage of cellulosic over corn ethanol go beyond Pennsylvania’s corn deficiency.

According to a report released earlier this year by the Chesapeake Bay Commission, an increase in corn crops for use in ethanol production “could increase the amount of nitrogen runoff ... and degrade water quality in rivers, streams and the Chesapeake Bay.”

However, cellulosic ethanol can absorb more nitrogen and reduce the erosion of sediment into the local water supply.

While both types of ethanol burn cleaner than conventional oil, cellulosic ethanol is simply more environmentally friendly.

Detractors claim ethanol has substantially driven up the price of corn, reaching $8 a bushel locally at its peak. But according to Shaffer, that’s only half true.

Production of corn ethanol accounts for only about 15 to 20 percent of the increase in corn prices, which have since dropped to around $5.90, Shaffer said. The combination of the rising price of fuel and the increased demand for food in highly populated countries like India and China has created a “perfect storm” that’s driving up food prices worldwide.

“Think about billions of people now eating two meals a day,” Shaffer said. “You’ve just doubled your demand for food worldwide.”