Weak nationwide demand for turkeys is greatly affecting large poultry producers in the Valley, who say they are seeing more than a 20 percent decrease in sales. This comes despite the stable price per pound of whole turkeys.

“Most people already know that the Pennsylvania dairy farmer is in trouble,” said Morril Curtis, owner of WindView Farms, of Port Trevorton. “But what they don’t know is poultry farmers are having financial difficulties too. It’s all about the economy. Our margins, even in the best of times, are extremely thin. With demand for poultry down, unless the economy improves, you might start seeing poultry farms going under and disappearing over the next few generations.”

WindView Farms raises 34,000 turkeys and is under an exclusive contract to Empire Kosher Poultry, in Mifflintown.

“The turkey market is very soft,” Curtis said. “I can’t say how smaller poultry farms that sell locally are doing. But we sell exclusively to Empire. They literally own the birds on this farm. They even buy the seed we need to raise the turkeys. Empire, I believe will do OK in the Thanksgiving season, but even the kosher market has dried up. Overall, we are being asked to produce less. And that’s not good for us, because we’re paid by pound and by performance.

“We have empty areas on our farm that haven’t been empty in 14 years.”

Because of the contract, Curtis cannot adjust his prices to reflect increased costs on the farm.

“A lot of what we get from Empire reflect fixed costs, but with the economy down, we’re being squeezed. That tiny margin is getting even smaller.”

Fewer birds slaughtered

The outlook Curtis describes is more pessimistic than the grim outlook for turkey sales officially put out by the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

U.S. Department of Agriculture figures show that turkey meat production during the first six months of 2009 was 2.8 billion pounds, down almost 10 percent from the same period in 2008. This reduced production was primarily due to a decline in the number of birds slaughtered.

Over the first half of 2009, the number of turkeys slaughtered was down 10 percent compared with the previous year. Adding to this was a small reduction in the average weight of birds going to slaughter compared with a year earlier.

The forecast for turkey meat production in the second half of 2009 is 2.94 billion pounds, down 7 percent from the same period in 2008 and 35 million pounds less than the previous forecast. The decrease in turkey meat production is again expected to come chiefly from a smaller number of birds slaughtered, as the average weight at slaughter are not expected to be significantly different from the previous year.

Even with wholesale prices for whole turkeys in the U.S. running about 14 to 15 percent below the previous year, turkey exports are expected to remain well below the levels of last year. Shipments in the second half of 2009 are expected to total 255 million pounds, down from 367 million in 2008.