SUNBURY — Although the past few winters have been somewhat milder than average, meteorologists expect the coming winter to be colder than in the recent past.

Tom Kines, a meteorologist with Accuweather in State College, said he expects this winter to be colder than the last few.

“We’re in a different weather pattern,” he said.

Kines said the past few winters were warmer than average, although he noted, “Mother Nature tends to even things out.”

During the past decade, from 2000-2009, the average monthly temperature in November was above the historic average in six of 10 years.

Whether this indicates a trend, Kines said, is open to debate.

In fact, looking at data over the past 50 years of annual heating degree days in Pennsylvania shows the greatest number of degree days, or coldest period, was in 1978, while the lowest was in 1998.

According to the federal Energy Information Administration, degree days are how one can accurately compare heating costs from year to year. The number of degree days is determined by comparing the average outdoor temperature to 65 degrees. If that number is 20 degrees, it’s a 45 heating degree day. If the temperature is 5 degrees, it’s a 60 heating degree day. The greater the difference, the more energy needed to heat the building.

Energy dealers keep track of the degree days throughout the heating season, using those numbers to calculate how much oil or natural gas a homeowner will need. For a homeowner, knowing the number of degree days in a month or in a season allows them to see how much they save over a period of time by insulating or lowering their thermostat.

Since 1949, the number of degree days in Pennsylvania has averaged 5,910, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reports, but it has swung from a low of 4,812 in 1998 to the 1978 high of 6,330, a swing of almost 25 percent. In the past decade, degree days during the winter have been as low as 5,050 in 2006 to the high of 6,090 in 2003.

Due to the colder-than-normal summer this year, the 5,888 degree days calculated so far exceeds 2008’s total for the year of 5,643 degree days.