The Daily Item, Sunbury, PA


September 8, 2011

Double-dip recession likely, economist says

LEWISBURG — A new recession is more likely than prosperity in the near future, a well-known economist told Valley business leaders during a lunch in Lewisburg on Wednesday.

"There is a 60 percent chance the country will see a double-dip recession in 2012," said Anirban Basu, chief executive officer of Sage Policy Group and keynote speaker of the chamber's economic forecast luncheon at La Primavera restaurant.

"Although the 2012 forecast is chilling, I expect a very prosperous economy in five to six years, when baby-boomers are expected to retire in greater numbers. Younger Americans -- members of Generation X and Generation Y -- will have incredible employment and advancement opportunities. As they advance to better jobs, those people are likely to buy homes, which will likely revive a struggling sector of the economy."

The Bureau of Labor Statistics shows the U.S. economy gained nearly 1.3 million jobs between August 2010 and August 2011. In the greater Sunbury area, unemployment has been steadily declining since it spiked at roughly 12 percent in January 2010, chamber officials said.

But the country is still 6.8 million jobs behind where it was in December 2007, and Basu expects it to take five or six years to restore all of those jobs.

In the short-term, he expects the economy to move backward or at least experience stalled growth.

Basu also said the housing market remains fragile and construction and sales of new homes have virtually stopped.

In addition, because of the fallout from the federal government's standoff over the debt ceiling and the ensuing stock market crisis, the economy has become unsteady, Basu said.

"I just can't see us sustaining this economy without any steady growth," he said. "Chances of recession are expanding, 60/40."

That is an increase from last September, when Basu listed the chance of a double-dip at 50/50.

Basu said the economy has hit a soft patch, but Pennsylvania is poised to weather a coming storm better than other states, because it produces a high number of necessary goods, such as food and natural resources. This kept Pennsylvania at the head of the recovery following June 2009, when the last recession ended.

— Email comments to

Text Only
  • 28-mile cross walk steps off in Northumberland

    SUNBURY — Two “cross walks” this morning, including a 28-mile trek from Northumberland to Beaver Springs, are among the highlights of Easter activities and services in the Valley.

    April 18, 2014

  • rsstrike18a.jpg Picketing begins at 4 Danville schools

    [LAST UPDATED: 2:38 A.M., 4/18/14]

    DANVILLE — It started like any other school day during the year, with teachers up early and arriving at school at 7:30 in the morning.

    April 18, 2014 1 Photo

  • Line Mountain board, teachers to talk Tuesday

    MANDATA — Line Mountain school board President Troy Laudenslager is far more optimistic this week than he has been as the board and the Line Mountain Education Association head into their first contract negotiation session in three months.

    April 18, 2014

  • Good Morning Central Susquehanna Valley

    Today is Good Friday, April 18, the 108th day of 2014. There are 257 days left in the year. On April 18, 1934, the first laundromat (called a “Washateria”) was opened by John F. Cantrell in Fort Worth, Texas; four electric washing machines were rented to members of the public on an hourly basis.

    April 18, 2014

  • Injured bicyclist can't believe car didn't stop

    SUNBURY — Brandon Reigle has one question for the driver and passengers who left him in the middle of the road after hitting the bicyclist with a car Wednesday: Why?

    April 17, 2014

  • Petitions target 'toxic few' on Midd-West board

    MIDDLEBURG — More than 400 names have been gathered on two petitions to remove a pair of Midd-West school directors after some members of the public claimed the district has been in disarray for quite some time.

    April 17, 2014

  • crash18.jpg Snyder County collision injures driver, kills two horses

    PORT TREVORTON — A car struck two horses on a rural road in Snyder County Thursday afternoon, injuring the driver and resulting in the death of the horses.

    April 17, 2014 1 Photo

  • Strike17.jpg Danville teachers hit picket lines

    DANVILLE - It started like any other school day during the year, with teachers up early and arriving at school at 7:30 in the morning.

    April 17, 2014 1 Photo

  • Snook suspension now a mystery

    MIDDLEBURG — Acting Midd-West Superintendent Daphne Snook is confused about what the school board is alleging she did that led to her suspension without pay, saying she hasn’t received anything in writing. “Nothing I have been told by the board in any way makes me believe that I violated district policy or the law,” Snook said by email Wednesday.

    April 17, 2014

  • Danville teacher strike starts today

    DANVILLE — Nearly four hours of negotiations could not prevent the first teacher strike at Danville in decades.

    April 17, 2014

The Daily Marquee

Are you among those who will be completing and mailing your tax forms today?

No - Already Filed
     View Results
Photo Galleries
The Valley


Click HERE to read all your Parade favorites including Hollywood Wire, Celebrity interviews and photo galleries, Food recipes and cooking tips, Games and lots more.