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Published July 06, 2008 12:51 am - Home foreclosures will keep rising next year no matter who is elected president in November.
Even the optimism that surrounds a new president taking office can't resurrect home values overnight, and presidents have no direct ability to reduce rising mortgage rates. Nevertheless, Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain both promise help for homeowners facing foreclosure.


Foreclosures to rise whoever wins White House



WASHINGTON (AP) _ Home foreclosures will keep rising next year no matter who is elected president in November.

Even the optimism that surrounds a new president taking office can't resurrect home values overnight, and presidents have no direct ability to reduce rising mortgage rates. Nevertheless, Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain both promise help for homeowners facing foreclosure.

Obama calls for a broader role for government than McCain, but both candidates envision the Federal Housing Administration providing new, cheaper mortgages to distressed homeowners who otherwise would have difficulty refinancing into more secure government-insured loans with lower monthly payments.

For the plans to work, lenders would have to be willing to take a substantial loss by reducing the amount owed on the loan. But some would have a powerful incentive to do so because a refinancing deal could allow them to recover far more money than they would get from the costly process of foreclosing on the property and trying to resell it.

Obama supports legislation along these lines by Sen. Chris Dodd, D-Conn., which would help around 400,000 strapped homeowners. People wouldn't have to have good credit to qualify as long as they could show they are able to afford the new payments.

"If the government can bail out investment banks on Wall Street, we can extend a hand to folks who are struggling on Main Street," Obama said.

McCain's plan would provide relief to 200,000 to 400,000 homeowners but would be open only to people who could show they were creditworthy when they got their original loan.

McCain said his plan offers "every deserving American family or homeowner the opportunity to trade a burdensome mortgage for a manageable loan that reflects the market value of their home."

The FHA piece of the Dodd plan would cost close to $1 billion, which would come from diverting money in the early years from an affordable housing fund financed by the profits of mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. McCain's FHA provision is estimated to cost from $3 billion to $10 billion and would be paid for by either cutting government spending elsewhere or having the federal government borrow more. The first choice is to cut government spending, a McCain aide said.

Experts predict foreclosures will continue to climb well into 2009. Some believe there's a chance for improvement in late 2009, but more think that won't happen until 2010.

Why? A long-term solution is tied to a turnaround in house prices. Slumping home values are blamed for the bulk of the rising tide of foreclosures. Troubled borrowers are left owing more to the bank than their homes are worth, so they walk away from their homes. Dumping more empty houses on the market adds to the pile of unsold homes, and that drives home prices down further. It's a vicious cycle.

"This is uncharted territory," said Susan Wachter, a professor of real estate and finance at the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School of Business.

Some predict house prices won't turn up until the spring selling season of 2010 — at the earliest.

Lawrence Summers, a former Treasury Secretary in the Clinton administration, predicted more than 2 million foreclosures are coming over the next two years, and up to 15 million homeowners will owe more than their house is worth, as house prices continue to fall.

Fifty-seven percent of Americans say housing prices are important to them personally, according to a recent AP-Yahoo News poll. For many, their home is their biggest asset. As home prices dropped, so did Americans' net worth — leaving people feeling less financially secure and more gloomy about the economy's direction.



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