Foreclosures to rise whoever wins White House
Which candidate would do a better job of handling housing prices? Twenty-five percent said Obama, while 17 percent thought McCain. Nearly 30 percent said neither.
Although most voters think the next president will have a "great deal" or "some" influence over housing prices, the reality is there's no quick fix.
"The odds of that are slim to none," said Cal Jillson, political science professor at Southern Methodist University. If the next president can make people more optimistic about the future, "the slow rebuilding of confidence will help to increase home values," he said.
When it comes to handling the broader economy — the top concern of voters, 32 percent picked Obama, while 28 percent went with McCain, the poll said.
There's another complicating factor that could push up foreclosures and that presidents don't control: Federal Reserve action. If the Fed is forced to boost interest rates to fend off inflation that would hike payments for struggling homeowners whose mortgage rates are resetting. "We are very exposed to interest rate risks and mortgage payment shocks in 2009," Wachter said.
Mortgage rates, including those on 30-year home loans, already have been climbing — pushed by inflation worries.
In addition to his FHA proposal, Obama calls for creation of a $10 billion foreclosure prevention fund that boosts counseling for distressed homeowners before they slide into foreclosure, helps people sell homes they bought but couldn't afford and teams with state governments, community groups and lenders to make sure loans can be modified in a timely manner to avoid foreclosure or bankruptcy.
His approach, which reflects the traditional Democratic preference for more government intervention, also would create a 10 percent mortgage credit for people who don't itemize their taxes. That would provide 10 million homeowners, most of whom earn under $50,000 a year, with an average of $500 in savings, his campaign says. And, that should help those struggling to keep up with their mortgage payments.
Obama also supports changing bankruptcy laws so that homeowners going through that process can renegotiate terms of their mortgages — just as people or investors who own multiple homes or vacation homes can do.
And, Obama also would move to combat mortgage fraud and improve mortgage disclosure. Deficiencies in those areas contributed to lax lending that allowed people to take out home loans that their incomes couldn't support, critics say.
"This kind of transparency won't just make our homeowners more secure, it will make our markets more stable, and keep our economy strong and competitive in the future," Obama said.
McCain prefers a more limited government role in dealing with the housing crisis, consistent with traditional GOP leanings. The other component of his plan calls for the Justice Department to set up a task force to investigate possible wrongdoing in the mortgage industry. The Justice Department has been pursuing cases of fraud and other mortgage-related matters.
"In some cases, lenders and borrowers alike were caught up in the speculative frenzy that has harmed the housing market," McCain said. "And it is not the responsibility of the American public to spare them from the consequences of their own bad judgment."
Congress has been working on a broad housing rescue package that would allow the FHA to help struggling homeowners. Differences have to be worked out between Dodd's plan, which is pending in the Senate, and a similar House-passed package by Rep. Barney Frank, D-Mass., and with the White House, too. The White House has repeatedly threatened a veto but is working behind the scenes with congressional leaders to find common ground.
The rescue plans envisioned by Obama and McCain — and Congress — would deliver short-term help but aren't a cure-all, housing experts said.