Bad data

July 02, 2008 05:57 am

— In my discussion with a Daily Item reporter (reported 6/29/08), we discussed many impressions and lessons learned from studying rivers worldwide and then returning home to Central Pennsylvania. We discussed how rivers are dynamic systems and how flood occurrence can change over time. As a result, it is important to regularly reassess the threat of flooding on rivers like the Susquehanna.
We also discussed how flood levels in Sunbury appeared to be 8 feet higher than early measurements. A more careful analysis of these records suggests that this jump is likely a data artifact (probably a shift in the Sunbury gage in the late 1960s or early '70s).
The Susquehanna is a beautiful and largely pristine river, at least compared to the heavily industrialized Mississippi and Missouri Rivers. Modest changes in flooding may result from climate change, land-cover shifts or local engineering, but Sunbury and other Susquehanna communities are unlikely to see the large increases in flooding documented on some Midwestern rivers.
Nonetheless, regular level-headed examination of flood risk and flood protection is prudent along any river and a necessary part of every river community's long-term relationship with its river.
Nicholas Pinter,
Carbondale, Ill.
n Nicholas Pinter is a geology professor at Southern Illinois University.