CHARLOTTE, N.C. €" It's become an NBA tradition to award the top three draft picks by weighted lottery, to discourage any perception that a team would intentionally lose to improve its draft position.

There's an assumption in that process that a top-three pick is so valuable, it's fool-proof. That assumption is a fallacy, as an Observer study of the past 10 drafts illustrates.

For every can't-miss LeBron James, there was a Kwame Brown selected at the top of a draft. Smart people still do dumb things; Detroit Pistons architect Joe Dumars once chose Darko Milicic No.2 overall, when future All-Stars Carmelo Anthony, Chris Bosh and Dwyane Wade were available.

The NBA will run its annual draft lottery Tuesday night, with the Charlotte Bobcats holding less than a 4 percent chance of a top-three pick. The odds overwhelmingly suggest they'll draft eighth. Charlotte Observer NBA writer Rick Bonnell examines how reliable a tool a top-three pick has been the past 10 drafts:

2007

Top three picks: Greg Oden, Kevin Durant, Al Horford. Analysis: Probably the right calls, since it wasn't Oden's fault he needed knee surgery. No.6 pick Yi Jianlian shows promise, but no more than Horford or Durant.

2006

Top three picks: Andrea Bargnani, LaMarcus Aldridge, Adam Morrison. Analysis: Aldridge played well for Portland this season, but Bargnani isn't a starter in Toronto and Morrison is still firming up a spot in Charlotte's rotation. The Bobcats screwed up by not giving greater consideration to Brandon Roy (already an All-Star) and Rudy Gay.

2005

Top three picks: Andrew Bogut, Marvin Williams, Deron Williams. Analysis: How the Atlanta Hawks (choosing No.2) passed on Deron Williams and Chris Paul, with a burning need at point guard, is one of the great head-scratchers. (It helps explain why Billy Knight no longer is general manager there.) All Paul did, in his third season, is finish second in most valuable player balloting. 2004

Top three picks: Dwight Howard, Emeka Okafor, Ben Gordon. Analysis: Gordon has been a decent combo guard, but he wouldn't be the third pick in a re-drawn draft. Luol Deng, Andre Iguodala and Al Jefferson all look like brighter prospects.

2003

Top three picks: LeBron James, Darko Milicic, Carmelo Anthony. Analysis: Milicic is on his third team and looks like a bust. Bosh, Wade, Chris Kaman and Josh Howard are far better players.

2002

Top three picks: Yao Ming, Jay Williams, Mike Dunleavy.