Zaktansky on Fantasy Football: Projecting the value of projections

October 12, 2008 05:59 am

— If only one could predict the future by simply crunching some numbers.
Fantasy football, a true numbers game, would be so much easier that way.
Take for example many of the major fantasy football Web sites. They now offer weekly projections of what they predict players will do against a given matchup on any given Sunday.
Mathematicians have actually developed formulas to project which players or defensive teams are the most likely to succeed. However, fantasy football, many have learned, is not an exact science in the least.
Take for example, running backs heading into week 6. Who are the top 12 halfbacks in projected stats? It depends on which Web site you look.
Adrian Peterson is projected by ESPN.com to run for 158 yards and two touchdowns, while also snagging two receptions for 17 yards en route to a 30-point fantasy day in a standard point-per-reception (PPR) league. Meanwhile, cnnsi.com predicts he will torch the Lions for 135 yards rushing, two touchdowns and 10 yards receiving on two receptions, or 28 standard fantasy points. Peterson is also the top-ranked fantasy running back for week six on NFL.com and Yahoo.com. Overall, he is the consensus top back across the board this week thanks largely to his matchup with Detroit.
The No. 2 running back is also a consensus pick across all four projections: Clinton Portis, who should carve up the St. Louis slipshod defense.
However, things get much murkier as you go down the list. Ronnie Brown is projected third overall at ESPN.com, sixth overall at cnnsi.com and fourth overall at both NFL.com and Yahoo.com. Frank Gore is ranked as high as third at one site (Yahoo.com) and not ranked in the top 12 at all on another (ESPN.com). Reggie Bush is ranked third overall at cnnsi.com, but not ranked in the top 12 at two other major sites (ESPN.com and Yahoo.com). LeRon McClain, the upstart Ravens running back who has been vulturing TDs and carries from Willis McGahee, comes in as a solid No. 5 in ESPN.com's rankings, but doesn't crack the top 12 at all on the other three sites researched.
Obviously, to be a good fantasy football owner, it isn't necessary to know how a player is ranked heading into action any given week. However, for fantasy owners who may have a decision to make -- perhaps deciding which two of three running backs to start hypothetically between Reggie Bush, Maurice Jones-Drew and Brandon Jacobs -- some statistical projections may make who to start/sit a little less stressful.
The bottom line is that it is OK to check weekly projections and to use them to help manage your fantasy football team on a weekly basis. However, to have a better picture of what you are up against, make sure to cross-reference your research with other sites. As every good scientist knows, the more samples you have to test, the more accurate the results.
Daily updates
Obviously the sports section of the newspaper isn't big enough to write a fantasy football column every day, or to share regular feedback on certain players, trends, teams, etc. That's why good friend Eric Pehowic and I started the Web site, www.chinstrapninjas.com.
Eric shares some well-researched stories on the changing of the guard at each position in terms of fantasy players and how they've performed this season so far.
Another article that I want to reference is about my current running back super buy of the week, Thomas Jones. While he has underperformed the last several weeks, Jones is in store for better stats due to a number of factors, and may be a cheap buy from another manager in your league who is growing impatient with Jones' stats. For numerous reasons on why I feel Jones is on the verge of turning around his season and producing respectable numbers the rest of the way, check out the Web site.
Perhaps you, too, can be a Chinstrap Ninja.
Injuries aplenty
For the first time in quite a while, this week will be majorly impacted from a fantasy perspective by injuries. Philadelphia running back Brian Westbrook has been ruled out, meaning that Correll Buckhalter makes a sneaky good play against San Francisco. Denver halfback Selvin Young has also been ruled out, with Michael Pittman slated to take most of the Broncos' carries. Carson Palmer will on the bench this week, meaning Ryan Fitzpatrick will be under center for the Bengals. Be sure to temper expectations for your Cincinnati receivers. Detroit's Jon Kitna will also be held out of action, meaning that Dan Orlovsky will make his first-ever NFL start -- and your Lion receivers will suffer accordingly. Other players of note who will likely not suit up this week (as of this writing) include Matt Hasselbeck, Brian Griese, Kellen Winslow, Jeremy Shockey, Reggie Brown and Tony Scheffler.
n For more fantasy football discussion, go to www.chinstrapninjas.com

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