[UPDATE - Saturday, 12:04 p.m.]
Weather can play a huge factor in fantasy football outcomes. Blizzards and downpours can force massive shifts in game flow. But wind is probably the factor that has the most effect.
On average, teams show a decline in yards per passing attempt and a moderate decrese in pass attempts when wind speeds get up to 10 miles per hour. In a game where wind speeds exceed 21 miles per hour, teams lose close to 15 percent of their passing production, according to research done by daily fantasy guru Jonathan Bales.
Here are the forecasts for all four games this week, adjust your lineups accordingly:
New Orleans at Seattle, 4:35 p.m. Saturday: Winds at 20 miles per hour with gusts to 50. Rain and thunderstorms are expected during game time.
Indianapolis at New England, 8:15 p.m., Saturday: Heavy rain, winds at 20-25 miles per hour during the game. Gusts up to 50 miles per hour.
San Francisco at Carolina, 1:05 p.m., Sunday: Mostly sunny, 55 degrees. Winds at 6 miles per hour.
San Diego at Denver, 4:40 p.m., Sunday: Mostly cloudy, 41 degrees with temperatures dropping below freezing by the fourth quarter. Winds will be 20 miles per hour at kickoff and decline slowly to 15 throughout the game. There are no severe weather warnings at this time in Denver.
As you can see, there will be a lot of wind in play in the games with the juiciest quarterback matchups. I'll be starting Cam Newton and Greg Olsen in more matchups than I expected because of this news.
Let’s get to those guesses for the 2013 Fantasy Football Playoffs Week 2 (or Week 19):
Peyton Manning – Talking about Manning feels a bit goofy at this stage. Like it said in the intro, he’s got the highest floor, ceiling and price in daily fantasy this week. What hasn’t been said: Based on averages of Broncos TD passes per game and the Chargers TD passes allowed per game, Manning should toss 2.4 scoring strikes. However, Vegas thinks the Broncos score 32 points this week. That’s four TDs and a field goal. The Broncos TD averages add up to 3.5, so there’s another half a TD for Manning to take. If he doesn’t surpass 300 and 3 TDs this week it might be the biggest shock of the week.