13. Adrian Gonzalez, Dodgers: Gonzalez is 32, which isn’t old in baseball years, but his stats and indicators say he may have skidded into the downhill slide a little early. His 22-homer, 100-RBI, .293 season in 2013 wasn’t bad and I think that’s what we should expect again in 2014.
14. Jose Abreu, White Sox: Well, that escalated quickly. We go from players we want to own, to some question marks and upside guys to a Cuban import that we cannot predict. Maybe he has 30-homer potential. He set the Cuban single-season mark for dingers. Maybe he’s the next Yoenis Cespedes, with little pop and some average. Maybe he’s going to flop. But like I said in the intro, this pick is for corner infield or flex, which means you want upside and Abreu’s got it.
15. Allen Craig, Cardinals: Craig’s 3-year averages over a 162-game schedule are pretty absurd. He also should hit around .300 and he hit 27 homers in one minor league season. I doubt he ever flirts with 30 homers in the majors, but if you picked him ahead of Trumbo, I couldn’t argue with you.
16. Matt Adams, Cardinals: Look, I’m going to be honest, I really don’t like the rest of the first basemen on this list. Adams is 25 so he might have a few leaps left. He has 30-homer upside, making him another lottery ticket pick.
16. Brandon Moss, Athletics: All players with 30-homer potential, please move to the front of the line. Thank you.
18. Michael Cuddyer, Rockies: A few blurbs ago I talked about how I cribbed this list from another site and I’ve been moving people about. Cuddyer took one of the steepest drops. If it wasn’t for Coors Field I might not even have him here. He’ll be 35 by the end of this month and I don’t care how you futz with the numbers, your not going to make that .331 average from 2013 repeatable.