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Published May 28, 2008 06:05 am - Barack Obama has done poorly in the Democratic primaries with women, Catholics and others who will be pivotal in this fall's presidential election. Yet early polling shows that with several of these groups, he's competitive when matched against Republican John McCain.


Obama competitive against McCain with key voters



WASHINGTON (AP) _ Barack Obama has done poorly in the Democratic primaries with women, Catholics and others who will be pivotal in this fall's presidential election. Yet early polling shows that with several of these groups, he's competitive when matched against Republican John McCain.

A look at voters who have been closely contested in recent presidential elections — or veered from one party to the other, making them true swing groups — shows a significant number have leaned toward Obama's rival, Hillary Rodham Clinton, in the primaries. Besides women and Catholics, these include the elderly, the less educated and suburbanites, leading Clinton to argue that this makes her the Democrats' stronger candidate for the fall campaign.

Yet Obama's performance with these voters in the primaries doesn't necessarily mean he'd do poorly with them in the general election, assuming he nails down the last few convention delegates he needs to win the nomination.

Polls this month show the Illinois senator leading McCain among women, running even with him among Catholics and suburbanites and trailing him with people over age 65. Results vary by poll for those without college degrees. And though Obama trails decisively with a group that has shunned him against Clinton — whites who have not completed college — he's doing about the same with them as the past two Democratic presidential candidates.

Obama is doing well against McCain with groups he has dominated in the primaries. Polls show him ahead of the Arizona senator with young people and college graduates, though the results vary from poll to poll among independents.

To be sure, Obama's poor performance with some groups in the primaries cannot be ignored. His task of wooing them could be complicated by McCain's attempts to appeal to middle-of-the-road voters and by the strong emotions Obama's long-running competition with Clinton has aroused. In recent contests, only half her supporters have said they would vote for Obama against McCain in the fall.

"I won't vote, or I'll go for McCain," said Maureen Brown, 53, of Philadelphia, a Clinton supporter who said she thinks Obama is too inexperienced. "Our options are pretty bad."

Yet Election Day is more than five months away, with tons of campaign money yet to be spent trying to influence voters like Brown who by then will be more focused on party identification and issues than they are today.

Obama's aim won't necessarily be to win majorities with the swing groups Clinton has dominated. Rather, he'll want to do well enough with them that when combined with the well educated, blacks, the young and other groups that are his strength, he'll snare the electoral votes he needs.

Women have preferred Clinton over Obama by 7 percentage points in this year's Democratic primaries, according to exit polls of voters. But when matched against McCain this month, Obama was ahead among women by 5 points in the Gallup Poll, 13 points in a poll by Quinnipiac University and 20 points in a survey by CBS News and The New York Times.

"I don't think those women voting for Hillary Clinton in the primaries will find John McCain more attractive" than Obama, said Mark Watts, a Democratic pollster.

Women voted for John Kerry by just 3 points in the 2004 general election, but favored fellow Democrats Al Gore in 2000 and Bill Clinton in 1996 by larger margins.

White women are especially in play in November, and they have voted for Hillary Clinton over Obama by a decisive 24 points. Polling this month shows mixed results over whether Obama or McCain is ahead with this group.

They leaned solidly toward President Bush in 2004, split about evenly between Bush and Gore in 2000, and tilted slightly toward President Clinton in 1996.

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